Leading in the Shadow of Uncertainty
or Never Waste a Good Crisis
We moderns don’t like uncertainty. It reminds us that we are not God. Over the centuries we’ve progressed from not naming children until they are 7 (in case they died and the name was wasted) to designer foetuses. But uncertainty is part of God’s process of bringing us to maturity. He blesses those willing to take risks for Him and His honour.
Andy Stanley highlights the benefits of uncertainty:
Uncertainty is a permanent part of the leadership landscape. It never goes away. Uncertainty is not an indication of poor leadership; it underscores the need for leadership. It is the environment in which good leadership is most easily identified. The nature of leadership demands that there always be an element of uncertainty. Where there is no uncertainty, there is no longer a need for leadership. The greater the uncertainty, the greater the need for leadership. As Jim Kouzes puts it, “Uncertainty creates the necessary condition for leadership.”
It took me several years to figure this out. As a young leader I was tormented by the assumption that I should know what to do in every situation. If I were a good leader, I would reason, I would know exactly what to do. After all, I am the leader! Leaders should know. Leaders are supposed to be able to stand up at any given moment and give direction with absolute certainty. Or so I thought.
To make matters worse, increased responsibility means dealing with more intangibles and therefore more complex uncertainty… In the realm of the intangible, it takes longer to recognize your brilliance or your stupidity. When you make decisions in the realm of business philosophy, values, mission, and marketing, you are forced to lead for long periods of time without the benefit of knowing whether you are actually going in the right direction. By the time the crop starts coming in, it is too late to change your agricultural procedure. You have to wait until the next planting season.
Clarity
…Ulysses S. Grant was clear even when he was uncertain. He was clear even when he was wrong. The uncertainty of his circumstances did not cloud the clarity of his command. So it must be with you if you are to become a leader worth following.
As leaders we can afford to be uncertain, but we cannot afford to be unclear. People will follow you in spite of a few bad decisions. People will not follow you if you are unclear in your instruction, and you cannot hold them accountable to respond to muddled directives. Neither will they follow if you display a lack of confidence. I am not encouraging you to pretend to be something you are not or know something you don’t. Bu as a leader you must develop the elusive skill of leading confidently and purposefully onto uncertain terrain.
None of us want to be wrong, especially as leaders. But next generation leaders must fear a lack of clarity more than a lack of accuracy. You can be wrong and people will continue to follow. If you are unclear, however, they will eventually go somewhere else. You can survive being wrong. You cannot survive being unclear…
A Warning
The relationship between uncertainty and clarity often creates a potentially dangerous dynamic in the work environment. The individual in your organization who communicates the clearest vision will often be perceived as the leader. Clarity is perceived as leadership.
If you are at the helm of your organization, the application is clear. You must be clear if you are to retain your influence. It is not enough to be the boss You must be clear. Clarity results in influence.
If you are not the leader in your organization, there is another, more complex, application of this axiom: As you gain clarity, you gain influence. At some point your influence may be threatening to those above you who are empowered but not clear. Your clarity may be perceived as disloyalty or an attempt to impose your own agenda. if this dynamic develops, your best move it to take the initiative to assure those in authority that your intention is to further, not compete with, their vision for the organization…
Uncertainty is not your enemy. Uncertainty provides you with job security now and unimaginable opportunities in the future. But all of that hinges on your ability and willingness to press on in spite of your surroundings…
Vision vs. Plans
Clarity of vision will compensate for uncertainty in planning. If you are clear and confident about the destination, you can handle a few detours along the way. If you are unclear about the destination of the journey, even the most sophisticated, well-thought-through strategy is useless.
Chances are that you are more certain about your vision than you are about your plans. The arena of plans and decisions is where leaders face the greatest uncertainty. There wil always be an element of uncertainty as it relates to plans. That’s to be expected. Plans change; visions remain the same.
Clarity of vision translates into a greater willingness to lead purposefully into uncertain environments. A clear vision, one that has truly gripped out hearts, has the ability to push us through our uncertainty. When I am convinced something must be, I am willing to take chances…
As a next generation leader you will be forced to abandon your plans from time to time. Clarify your vision and embrace the uncertainty of your plans. Pencil in your plans. Write your vision in ink.
Andy Stanley, Next Generation Leader, Five Essentials for Those Who Will Shape the Future, pp. 79-98.
